A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
